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Change – The Cloud Paradigm

Oct 31st

Posted by Zealot

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Tagged: in General
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question-cloud A change is definitely coming, no matter what your views on the upcoming US election…only this change is in the way you work and play using PCs. I am becoming more and more convinced that the future of computing, for good or bad, resides in the cloud. Over the last several months, I have been observing a slow, subtle shift in the focus of new technology to support this new paradigm. It isn’t something that will happen all at once, or due to some game-changing new product or release…it is a gradual, incremental process. In fact, it is already well advanced and the shifts I have been observing have been more to set the stage for greater changes to come.

Cloud computing has many obvious advantages for mobile technology, but also some glaring deficiencies at the moment. However, the signs that the industry is moving further and further into cloud computing as at least a viable option for the enterprise or individuals are too numerous to ignore.

Just consider the signs and portents over the last few months:

  • The rise of Netbooks and UMPCs in general. The small storage capabilities and less powerful chips found in Netbooks and UMPCs are tailor-made for cloud computing. Without a cloud network, a Netbook is a souped up PDA. However, WITH a connection to the cloud, it becomes a truly mobile office, fulfilling the promise the Eee and it’s supporters first started to toss about a year and a half ago.
  • Android and Chrome. The OS and browser released by Google, while still works-in-progress are clearly focused on making mobile computing more cloud-friendly…in fact downright cloud reliant. Without the overarching and all-encompassing Google network, Chrome is hamstrung and Android is effectively useless. As more vendors create and users adopt Android based devices, the pressure on businesses and ISPs to fully support and enable Cloud computing will increase.
  • The iPhone. The public is now used to the concept of a mobile internet device, thanks in partv to the iPhone. Mobile internet use has gone off the scale doubled or increased by as much as tenfold due to the Apple wundergadget and once people get used to surfing the net on the bus or on line at the movies thanks to 3G and Cloud computing, they will never go back to websurfing only from a larger computer such as a PC or a laptop being totally deskbound. The iPhone is not an ideal Cloud device in many ways in my opinion, but it has certainly proven the concept to the mainstream.
  • Windows Azure and Microsoft Office 14. Google has been talking up the Cloud via Google Docs and other tools for ages now, mainly due to the fact it was a way for them to try and fully circumvent their black beast, Microsoft. Now MS is taking a page from their book, and moving into the Cloud computing arena. This will help convince some enterprises that have been sitting on the fence concerning the Cloud to give it a try. I would expect many business to start an “either/or” plan with Office 14, encouraging workers to use both the standard PC side version of Office and the Cloud based version, depending on their location and connectivity. I know my office has been unwilling to officially support Google Docs due to interoperability fears. Cloud based Office will likely be a different story.
  • Windows 7. The fact that the upcoming (and already critically praised) Windows reboot has already been shown to be able to run on a Netbook is a very VERY big deal. That MS is stressing that ability so early in the hype shows clearly that Microsoft feels that Netbooks are here to stay and will only become bigger in the year it will take to buff the corners off Windows 7. The Microsofties are also appearing to learn from their mistakes, since they were caught flatfooted by the initial growth of Netbooks and allowed Linux to gain a renewed lease on life. Vista was too heavy for the tiny chips and limited SSDs found in UMPCs, but XP was already well on it’s way of being phased out…leaving them in a position that they either extend the life of XP (cannibalizing and effectively putting the nail in Vista’s coffin) or surrender this new market to Linux. With Windows 7, they are aiming it at Netbooks from the get-go, making sure that users will be able to run the same OS version on all of their computers and hopefully keep them in tighter sync then is possible now. Having several internet connected devices, all using the same OS and using Cloud computing to stay in sync and in touch may be the way we all do business in five years…Microsoft is clearly positioning itself for that.
  • The MiniNote. For better or worse, all of the major Notebook vendors have now released Netbooks, some more successfully then others. The top PC maker in the world, HP, came out early with the MiniNote to widespread disappointment in the market. I assumed, as did many, that HP knocked something out to make sure they had a product in the niche, then would let it wither away with a substandard chip and generally mediocre reviews (though everyone loved the keyboard). Instead, over the last couple weeks I have realized that not only is HP not finished with Netbooks, it clearly considers them a key product for the future and are making a play to take the market away from current leaders Asus and Acer. More powerful MiniNotes, now with Atoms, at rock bottom prices are now hitting the market and are going to have the game changing effect I had originally predicted the Dell E would have. Mininotes, according to many are the best designed Netbooks out there pound for pound and are ditching the widely unpopular VIA chip and are now being sold at pricepoints we haven’t seen since the Eee 700 was the hot new ticket. Clearly HP saw what Acer did to the market with the Aspire One and decided to follow suit in a big way. Forget Dell, HP is going to make Netbooks a ubiquitous item and not just a hobbyist gadget. HP throwing itself fully behind the device (with an assist from Lenovo who has also come up big lately in Netbooks) will make Cloud computing even more attractive as Netbook use spreads further and farther thanks to the fact HP is trusted by the enterprise and consumers alike.

Of course, there are serious drawbacks and pitfalls to Cloud computing…such as:

  • Many businesses are unwilling to place most of their productivity at the mercy of the ISP, or their net connection.
  • Google is still viewed as the heavyweight in Cloud computing and distrust for them, especially in the corporate world, is mounting exponentially.
  • Many people are still not willing to have multiple devices. On the consumer level, Cloud computing is best suited to situations where you have multiple devices that you wish to be able to sync info and share applications. As long as you have a single PC or Notebook, the Cloud isn’t very compelling yet.
  • 3G or Wireless Broadband coverage is still not universal, even in places like the US, so the danger of being caught without it is still signifigant. If you can’t access the net, it’s bad enough when you are on the road…if you can’t access your email or mission critical documents or essential applications on the Cloud, that could be a disaster. Therefore, savvy types will keep key documents and portable applications with them on backups just in case…and if they are already doing that, what is the point of the Cloud?
  • The division between the Haves and Have Nots in computing will be increased by Cloud computing in many ways. Cloud computing depends on infrastructure and communications networks to be in place. Much of the Third World still lags far behind in such things, meaning that businesses and individuals in those areas will simply not have access to Cloud computing, even if they do have PCs. The centralized nature of the Cloud may mean that the individual doesn’t need to spend as much for his own PC or software, but it puts the onus much more heavily on Governments and ISPs to extend the network to even the poorest, most remote/extreme/dangerous parts of the world and make it truly global. No guarantee that will happen.

I am becoming interested in and excited about Cloud computing primarily due to the fact I see it as forming a symbiotic relationship with Netbooks and other mobile devices. As the Cloud becomes more accepted as the new paradigm in computing, Netbooks and UMPCs will become cheaper, more advanced, more capable and better embraced by the enterprise…and that sounds to me like a very good thing indeed. There are challanges ahead, and pitfalls to overcome…but at least as far as I can tell, the new direction is pretty clear. Sure thin clients and server-side computing has been tried many times and failed spectacularly…but this time I feel technology, economic realities and communication advances will come together to make the “centralized” concept stick.

At least in this instance, I am all for Change. How about you?

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Zealot (476 Posts) - Website | Twitter | Facebook

By day a department manager and writer for a major network device vendor...by night Zealot stalks the mean magnetic streets, striking fear into the hearts of bandwidth abusers and theme park mascots. Zealot has been involved with mobile devices for more than a decade now, starting off with dumb phones, moving to PDAs and then to smartphones, notebooks and netbooks with the odd PMP thrown in. Most of his mobile time currently is spent on a Treo Pro, Zune HD, Thinkpad T61, Gigabyte M912M or a Hackintoshed Compaq Mini 704. He proudly groks the Geek community and considers himself a Neo Maxi Zune Dweebie (thanks Will Wheaton!).

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  • doogald
    Another (I think) important factor in cloud computing is a service like Google Gears, which allows apps and data to be accessed while the device is off-line, to be synced when connectivity is reestablished. There remain places where connectivity is impossible (my summer home, for example, where dial-up is the best we get, and we don't waste much time with it; airplanes, of course, are another), and such a service can be invaluable.
  • Pony99CA
    You raised a good point regarding using the cloud…or online computing…to keep shared documents updated. However, cloud or online computing is not used just as a massive storage area. The concept as put forth by Google, Microsoft and others are for the actual applications to reside centrally on the web and be used via 3G or broadband connections.

    Good syncing involves more than just a massive storage area. Isn't that what Live Mesh is about?

    As for applications, I know that's part of c**** computing, and I wasn't excluding that. I was just giving one example of how it was still useful even when people keep off-line versions of their files.

    By the way, there was already a perfectly good name for that c**** applications: Software As A Serice (SaaS).

    I also see your point about the OLPC using an antenna to improve WiFi reception…but the OLPC hasn’t seemed to be a major factor at this point.

    True, but it's meant to be (at least in education). I wonder how many people in poor Africa have heard of the iPhone vs. OLPC or Classroom Computer.

    What’s more, it may extend the range of the WiFi reception, but how far and how stable and fast is the connection?

    When Negroponte showed it on "60 Minutes", I think he said the connection was about 2 miles (or maybe kilometers). It may not be that far all the time, of course, but even in the U.S. we get dropped calls and areas of no coverage.

    My point was more that maybe we can address the problem with different solutions. In one sense, the OLPC could be viewed as an early Netbook. As most (all?) Netbooks use WiFi, not cellular, the analogy isn't too far off.

    A network is only as good as the infrastructure under it, and online computing needs as reliable a network as possible..therefore a widespread, robust infrastructure with built in redundancy. That is not easy to find in the third world right now, and likely to become less so as countries that normally give aid for such things are looking to cut costs.

    True, but being behind can actually be an advantage at times. I recall reading that some third world countries weren't bothering with landlines any longer; they were just going to cellular.

    Similarly, maybe countries without a good cellular network can go straight to WiMax or something else.

    I'm not saying the problem doesn't exist, just that it might not be so bad. (Of course, I've never been worried about the "digital divide", although that could just be because I'm one of the "haves".)

    Lastly, I used the term Cloud computing because it is the accepted industry term..and used it that often because the piece I wrote was ABOUT Cloud computing. In other articles I don;t use it at all, so maybe it will balence out? I could have called it anything really, since I was discussing the trend, not the term. I can’t do anything about the use of the term Cloud Compouting overall, however..maybe send a note to Intel?

    I understand why you used it; I just wanted to see if the term annoyed other people as much as it does me. ;)

    And the drinking game reference was meant in fun (like when Tina Fey playing Sarah Palin on SNL said, "And for those of you playing the drinking game at home, 'maverick'.")

    Steve
  • Zealot
    Steve...

    I was discussing popular perception and awareness in my comments about the iPhone.

    Regarding off the scale, it was an idiom to descibe a non-specific value. I will use your statement instead, and thereofre changed the sentence accordingly.

    As far as being deskbound, I more meant that to indicate having to work from a full PC or laptop. You are correct that there have been ways to browse the net from mobile devices for years now, but as far as the popular perception and the consumer market are concerned the iPhone made that far easier and "normal". People seem to like the user experience of Safari on the iPhone a good deal more then web browsers on PDAs or other smartphones..go figger. At any rate, I will change that term as well since as you said, desks don't really figure into it.

    You raised a good point regarding using the cloud...or online computing...to keep shared documents updated. However, cloud or online computing is not used just as a massive storage area. The concept as put forth by Google, Microsoft and others are for the actual applications to reside centrally on the web and be used via 3G or broadband connections. If due to unreliability someone keeps portable copies of the same applications, then that does diminish the "essential" nature of online computing.

    I also see your point about the OLPC using an antenna to improve WiFi reception...but the OLPC hasn't seemed to be a major factor at this point. What's more, it may extend the range of the WiFi reception, but how far and how stable and fast is the connection? A network is only as good as the infrastructure under it, and online computing needs as reliable a network as possible..therefore a widespread, robust infrastructure with built in redundancy. That is not easy to find in the third world right now, and likely to become less so as countries that normally give aid for such things are looking to cut costs.

    Lastly, I used the term Cloud computing because it is the accepted industry term..and used it that often because the piece I wrote was ABOUT Cloud computing. In other articles I don;t use it at all, so maybe it will balence out? I could have called it anything really, since I was discussing the trend, not the term. I can't do anything about the use of the term Cloud Compouting overall, however..maybe send a note to Intel?
  • Pony99CA
    Mobile internet use has gone off the scale due to the Apple wundergadget and once people get used to surfing the net on the bus or on line at the movies thanks to 3G and Cloud computing, they will never go back to being totally deskbound.

    While the iPhone has certainly opened people up to smart phones, I've got two bones to pick with your claims.

    First, mobile Internet use has not gone "off the scale". The last I heard, it was still less than 1% of Web browsing. Granted, the iPhone seems to have increased online mobile usage by a factor of 2-10, perhaps, but it's not off any scale.

    Second, implying the iPhone is responsible for people not being "totally deskbound" seems like more overstatement. Laptops showed people the benefit of computing away from their desks well before the iPhone. PDAs (non-connected ones, like the Palm and Pocket PC) made people's data truly portable. WiFi enabled mobile connectivity for both laptops and PDAs (without requiring an expensive data plan). So many people were freed from their desks long before Apple produced the iPhone.

    [S]avvy types will keep key documents and portable applications with them on backups just in case…and if they are already doing that, what is the point of the Cloud?

    I'm going to assume that's not a rhetorical question. The point is that you can pick up the latest versions of the document from anywhere. Your local copy may go out of date when you don't have connectivity, but when you regain it, you can refresh it (without having to go back to your home or office).

    That's the same reason Microsoft Exchange OTA sync is useful. Sure, you could use ActiveSync or WMDC, but then you always have to be at (or near) your PC to get updates. With OTA sync, you get updates anywhere you have connectivity.

    Cloud computing depends on infrastructure and communications networks to be in place. Much of the Third World still lags far behind in such things, meaning that businesses and individuals in those areas will simply not have access to Cloud computing, even if they do have PCs.

    That depends on the PC. The One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) PC was specifically designed for third-world connectivity. It included long-range WiFi (thanks to the flip-up antennae).

    Yes, some infrastructure will still be needed, but the better than range of your device, the less infrastructure will be necessary.

    Steve

    P.S. Am I the only person who hates the term "cloud computing"? I suspect it got that name only because system diagrams typically depicted the Internet as a cloud-like entity. What's wrong with "online computing" or something, indicating the need for a data connection?

    You used "cloud" so often in the article that I thought some people were playing a drinking game or something. :D
  • Zealot
    John,
    Your point concerning the processing power, or lack thereof is well taken, and I should clarify some points I made.

    One, while I totally agree Netbooks cannot compare to deskops or most notebooks in terms of power, as dual and quad core chips become the norm most people don't use all that power. For most office and internet tasks (short of graphics editing) even a standard Atom is enough. For power users or hobbists the added poer of th Cloud wil very welcome however.

    Also, when I mention the need for PC owners to embrace the concept of multiple computers, I meant that more in terms of embracing netbooks (and therefore the cloud). Even Intel stresses that Netbooks are intended to be a second or third computer. As people get more comfortable with owning and using multiple PCs, the cloud will by nessecity spread.

    Z
  • John
    Great article and I couldn't agree more with everything but one point. I think that cloud computing is the way to relax the constraints that are inherent in mobile computing: mobile computers - from smartphones to netbooks - will always be underpowered in comparison to what desktops can do. Borrowing computing resources from a server bypasses this weakness and essentially transforms the mobile device into a remote of a very powerful computer. So, whether you have one device or many, the cloud will be important. It is not just synchronization - the cloud is important as computing resource multiplier.
  • Well written article. I completely agree.
  • badersk
    Great article. Not being a real techie I have been reading articles on cloud computing and wasn't sure that I fully understood the reasoning for it. Having read your article, I can see, as you explained, the purpose and maybe even a need for it. I had often wondered why some of the netbooks and MIDS were being produced with such small storage devices. Your article explained it all. Thanks alot.
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