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Well, would it? Is that why there is no Flash Player for the iPhone? I, like many others, have been lusting after  Flash Player support for the iPhone, since before I even had an iPhone. Heck, I have been obsessed with true Flash-based mobile Rich Internet Application support for devices since I got my iPaq 3830 back in the day (and I am not talking about the lame, disjointed players for PIE, or even the couple of decent standalone ports–I am definitely aware it has been possible to play Flash content on mobile devices for a while). No, I am talking about true, open to the masses, “we’re gonna get behind this thing and go” Flash-based mobile RIA support. It never happened the way it could have here in the U.S.A. It always seemed to me that Adobe (really Macromedia at that time) squandered the opportunity and spent so much time trying to figure out how to control, monetize and license a mobile player, that none of the sea of developers out there could really get cracking on taking  the whole thing to the next level state side. I know they spent lots of time enabling development patterns outside the United States, but why not here? I am sure there are reasons–complex, political and technologically challenging reasons, likely hovering around our non-unified infrastructure. I would love to hear more about this, because it was never really clear to me what was going on here in the U.S. with regard to this, and as someone fairly intimate with the technology (I have spent the last 7 years as a Flash Designer/Developer) I was always hoping to hear more about what was going on. Feel free to comment on this and share your opinion. From my estimation, Adobe/Macromedia could have become the de facto mobile RIA development platform of choice and owned the whole thing by now. It could still happen, I guess, but the easy road may have passed them by. Why?

Well, while this was up in the air for them, a couple of things happened. Nokia updated their S60 software offering a few times. Both Apple and Google released their own specific mobile operating systems, SDKs and marketplaces for housing, creating and selling proprietary mobile RIAs, respectively. More companies are sure to follow this trend leading to continued fragmentation. The dream of a convergent solution (like Flash Player) stalls. Dang!

But back to the main question: Do mobile Flash RIAs really pose a threat to Apple and its “App Store”? The answer is YES, whether Apple will admit this or not. I’m sure it is no big secret. Honestly, it now seems so obvious to me that I can’t believe it never occurred to me before last week. Yes, both systems for creating interactive mobile applications and content are competing as architectures. This, my friends, is why there is no Flash Player for iPhone, not because “it’s not good enough for Apple standards” or whatever Jobs rationalized.

Upon looking into it a little more, I realized that plenty of people have noted this reasoning:  like this person and that person and this person and that person. I just didn’t pay enough attention. As I noted above though, there has been no focused mentioning of a distribution roadmap from Adobe and I think that is why it slipped passed my radar. Even now, as I hit up everyone I know for info, including some insiders, there is no simple answer surfacing about Adobe’s plan for distributing mobile RIAs. If anyone out there has some info, please come forward.

Because of this vacuum, Apple can stall as long as they like, further entrenching their own platform–same with Google.

But will Apple or other closed marketplaces prevail in keeping Flash Player support out of their devices? The answer is NO. There is not enough time for iPhone’s OS to become the dominant mobile OS before they will be forced to allow Adobe to integrate in some way, due to the sheer force of developer request and general competition. The resources at Adobe and tools of their trade are just to deep to allow action otherwise. For example, using Adobe’s system makes so much sense from a development standpoint because an application could be developed a single time and then ported to many different media outlets–computer, mobile, broadcast–versus developing one time for one device. But as we have unfortunately seen in the American Auto Industry, no one will do anything until they absolutely have to do it and therefore Apple can wait until competition from other operating systems forces them to allow integration. Believe me, I am not accusing Apple of stifling innovation. That would be an hilarious statement. I am just noting that strategically, they do not have to move on this yet.

Look, this is not an “Adobe Hater” post or an “Apple Rant”. Clearly there is a lot to this and a lot at stake. Sure, Adobe has the problem of trying to enable content across multiple mobile operating systems…clearly a daunting and expensive task. But I still think it’s true that, had Adobe/Macromedia had clear vision and taken decisive action by making a mobile Flash Player that was free and distributable a long time ago, like the desktop player, this whole thing could have been over by now and we would see the fruits of how far developers pushed the gamut for mobile RIAs on a mobile version of the Flash Player. This could have secured dominance earlier on. That being said, they kept the door open and allowed some other technologies to compete and really that is a good thing. Truly, the App Store concept is brilliant and has been allowed to take hold. But as I see another cycle of open vs. closed technologies  play out again,  I am reminded that the closed system suffers while the open system flourishes. Apple will hopefully be prepared to “open up” when they have to do it. I think they know what they are doing and will be smart about it, even if they are turning their back on many talented Flash Developers in the short term.

Jay Donovan (50 Posts) - Website | Twitter | Facebook