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Home » Opinion

18 Months is a Lifetime

Posted by Steve Laser on January 29, 2009 – 10:50 am  Share
closeThis post was published 9 months 22 days ago.
It\'s is possible that the information within this article is now out of date or updated.

train

When I wrote the article, “Divergence and Death” last August, I said in regards to Windows Mobile (WM), “Windows Mobile is Dead.  Read on to find out why your next device will not have a Windows Mobile OS…It’s grown old.  And boring.  I’m thinking of kicking my excitement level up by taking up Bocce Ball or Bowling.  All the devices are the same.  They are no better than what we had four years ago.  They’re just getting bloated with compromised add-ons.”  ZDnet just did an interview with Andy Lees, Microsoft’s top WM guy, and he admitted, “We aimed to go for a lower common denominator…We started out when we were in PDAs (personal digital assistants) and then a phone got strapped to the back of the PDA,” Lees said. The company also failed to recognize that phones–even those that were used for business–were still as much personal as they were professional.”

There were 38 responses to that article, such as,

“Another anti-Windows Mobile rant. Why don’t you write about how cameras have not really changed in 10 years, or laptops? They still sell like hotcakes, much like Windows Mobile. 90% YoY growth is not to be sneezed at, and WM gained market share on Nokia in Europe recently.

People who have used WM for 10 years are understandably bored. They should really just move on without this traditional “slamming the door on the way out” rant.”

and

despite ANYTHING that is said here, WinMo is NOT, I repeat NOT dead or on life support. As I recall, this was a hardware based rant. Which, was right… I’m not certain why we are still using devices with speeds and capabilities we had 3+ years ago…

and on the opposite end,

“The big culprit here is the Windows Mobile OS with the lack of innovation and effort from Microsoft over the past several years. Honestly, the devices are good in terms of hardware but the core is lacking significantly.”

and this:

I’ve been having this conversation with Chris Gavula and the rest of the Team over at Gear Diary for more than a year. While this rant is right on when it comes to the hardware, in many cases, its not about can’t…its about don’t or won’t.

We had wildly divergent opinions to the article.  But the bottom line, at least to me, was that WM phones and PDAs made today are using the same hardware as almost five years ago, and WM looks like DOS next to next gen OS’s such as the iPhone, Symbian, BlackBerry, Android and the upcoming Palm Pre.  Is all hope lost?  Can Microsoft regain the confidence of users?  Andy Lees thinks so.  He said, “Microsoft embarked on a new strategy some time ago that will come to fruition over the next 18 months.”  Wow, 18 months is forever in the world of technology.  Time seems to have stopped for WM.  With incremental upgrades to the OS, Microsoft is making a half-assed effort at pleasing customers.  If they come out with an OS with a major WOW factor, if it’s not delayed, if it is not buggy, are you going to wait 18 months for it?  Are their competitors?  Apple has made significant improvements to the iPhone, RIM is cranking up the heat, Android is new and exciting and Palm really is putting forth a huge effort with the Pre.  I don’t see any of them falling to the wayside.  Chances are that over the next 18 months your cell contract will be up.  Will you pay hundreds of dollars for a WM device that is no better than what you have today or will you look at the competition?  I believe many people will think twice before going to the same old same old.  And once you change trains, it is that much harder for WM to win you back.  18 months can turn into a lifetime.

Source: ZDnet via Pocket PC Thoughts

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  • Charles
    The hardware argument is no longer true. Look at the HTC Touch HD for top-notch hardware. Nvidia Tegra will be coming later.
    The problem is software. Windows Mobile is antiquated and WM7 is not going to be around for a long time apparently. If 6.5 is not a major update Microsoft will lose the market.
  • @Steve Laser

    Just for the record, I absolutely love reading the comments, whether they agree with my article or not.


    That's the right attitude. I've always found the comments that disagreed with me more interesting (albeit sometimes more frustrating) than the ones that agreed with me.

    It's nice when people agree with me, but lots of "Good post" comments don't really add much to the discussion. Good disagreements seem to get more views, too. :D (See Gil's post comparing the various OS options that got the Android fans -- or Phandroids -- up in arms....)

    Steve
  • Steve Laser
    Just for the record, I absolutely love reading the comments, whether they agree with my article or not. Thanks to everyone for taking time to put their thoughts forward!
  • Rick
    I hope I don't disappoint with my comment, but I just switched TO Windows Mobile 6.1 (Palm Treo 800w).

    Having been through Palm phones from the Kyocera 6035 to the Treo 300, 600, and 700p, I insist on a phone with a known OS that I can customize with my own software.

    With my recent upgrade, Apple was out because of lack of carrier choice, lack of keyboard, no ability to add memory, and did they ever add a removable battery? The only model difference is memory, something I should be able to add myself. How about some choices?

    Blackberry has come a long way, but it seems they still want you to use a BES server or give your credentials to a 3rd party server that checks mail for you. There isn't much 3rd party software for BB either - at least not compared to Palm, WM, or Apple.

    I admit, I haven't paid much attention to Symbian. With what I've seen so far, when I upgrade my wife's phone in 6 months, we'll be looking at the Pre, Android, and WM.

    With my new phone, I'm using both Wi-Fi and 3G to download podcasts (I pushed 1-2 GB of bandwidth per month when it was 3G only), and RSS feeds (newsgator), I read email from 5 different accounts (and I do check from multiple IMAP folders on one). I use GPS navigation with spoken directions and traffic based rerouting, and also use Google Maps or GPStoday to mark where I parked in large lots (amusement park, for example) - I expect the GPS to get me within a few feet of the car, and it does).

    My today screen gives me weather from both Weatherbug direct and GPStoday (sourced from weather.com) and I get weather alerts as a popup.

    I'm writing this using Opera Mobile (it isn't Safari/iPhone, but it beats pocket IE). I have the Seidio 2600mAh extended battery and a charger that allows me to charge the battery without the phone (so I can swap batteries and not have to leave the phone near the outlet).

    So, what phone did I forget to consider? I don't think I'm a WM apologist; until recently, I hadn't even considered WM.

    Rick
  • Oops, I forgot the citation for my claim of Android taking almost 5 years. Here's one from Business Week.

    But, yes, Windows Mobile development does seem slower than that on the iPhone or Android. However, is Symbian really advancing in leaps and bounds? Has the BlackBerry OS really made major advances? Adding touchscreen support, to get something Windows CE basically had in 1998, isn't that huge, IMHO. (Yes, it has a capacitive screen, but that was RIM dancing to the iPhone's tune.)

    Steve
  • So all Windows Mobile hardware is similar. Are iPhones, Symbian, BlackBerry, Android or the Pre running on radically different hardware? Do they have 2 GHz processors, 100+ GB storage or Full HD resolution? No. Do any of those platforms run on the diversity of form factors that Windows Mobile does? I don't know about Nokia, but the answer for the rest is No again (although Android might in the future).

    The "Divergence & Death" focused on only three factors -- processor (including speed), screen size and resolution. Let's look at those.

    Processors What Windows Mobile can do with processors is limited to what the chip people put out. I've read that Acer is coming out with an 800 MHz processor, but is that really a huge jump? What processors do the competition use?

    Screen Size While screens come in all sizes, how big a screen is really portable? You didn't like your Advantage because it was too big, and one reason it was probably too big was because it has a 5" screen.

    Resolution Do any of the competiton have resolutions better than the best Windows Mobile device (800x480, I think, on the Xperia X1)? Several WM devices have 640x480 resolution, which is more than the iPhone, even.

    You even criticized Bluetooth as being old in that article, as if Microsoft has much to do with that. Come on.

    So I don't think hardware is your real complaint here, it's the software. And, while that's certainly a somewhat valid complaint, we now have this article, your I Want A New Drug article and the Divergence & Death article basically covering the same ground in a time period of almost exactly 5 months. We get it, you're bored, but it's now getting boring.

    When Lees said Microsoft's plans would come to fruition in 18 months, I hope you don't assume that means we won't see anything for 18 months. How about waiting two weeks or so to see what Microsoft announces in Barcelona....

    By the way, how long did development of the iPhone version of OS X take? How about Android? (Android took about 5 years -- 22 months at the original company and about three years at Google.)

    Steve
  • Msliberty
    What is old, is, what is not new. My Axim (with WM2003 no less) has more abilities than anything coming out. We can keep trying new software, but unless the device or it's interface comes out with new feel or style, it is just the same. I was excited about the Sony Ericcson Xperia phone, but it is super expensive and not a choice for my provider. Now I got excited about the new Palm.Switching from Palm OS was hard for me. I can go back --- for more. But I read that it will not have expansion cards. I feel bereft. I want to get excited about my technology again. Wait another year plus? I don't have time for this. I am so disappointed.
    msliberty
  • Proto732
    Short of WM "looking" old, what is OLD about it? WM still does MORE than most other mobile OS's.

    What do you want to see done in the next release?

    Finger friendliness built into the OS instead of all these overlay UI shells being created would be on my list... and certainly speeding up the whole OS.
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