Celio RedFly in Action
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A few days ago I commented about the Celio Redfly adding support for BlackBerrys. I came across that bit of information first while researching to purchase a Celio RedFly myself and then while I’ve been …

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Home » NetBook

Netbooks Stumbling?

Posted by Zealot on January 20, 2009 – 2:13 am
closeThis post was published 9 months 18 days ago which may make its actuality or expire date not be valid anymore. This site is not responsible for any misunderstanding.

Wall Street There has been much talk over the last couple months about Netbooks riding into the PC market in these difficult economic times and either saving or slaying the industry. It appears however that this knight in shining armor was not as shiny as the vendors anticipated.

Digitimes is reporting that the two Netbook sales leaders, Asus and Acer, both failed to meet their shipment guidance for the year. In 2008 Asus shipped 4.9 million Eees as opposed to the expected 5 million plus while Acer shipped between 4.5 and 4.8 million Aspire Ones rather the 5 million they had projected (and used to trumpet themselves the new market kings).

Of course, such minor slippages in shipments are to be expected during a global recession. The other details that Digitimes is offering are far more disturbing and could have a powerful impact on 2009 sales. Apparently of the 4.9 million Eees shipped, only 4.5 million were actually sold in 2008. That leaves 400,000 Eees sitting in retailers warehouses clogging up the supply chain and cutting into new shipments and sales in 2009. Acer is even worst shape, with only 4 million sold out of 4.5-4.8 million shipped. One fifth of last years shipments still sitting gathering dust in January does not bode well for first quarter sales.

Little wonder then that according to Digitimes again, Asus is taking steps to cut back on customer confusion and brand bloat by consolidating the Eee series down to four lines (rather then the current gajillion).

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By day a department manager and writer for a major network device vendor...by night Zealot stalks the mean magnetic streets, striking fear into the hearts of bandwidth abusers and theme park mascots. Zealot has been involved with mobile devices for more than a decade now, starting off with dumb phones, moving to PDAs and then to smartphones, notebooks and netbooks with the odd PMP thrown in. Most of his mobile time currently is spent on a Treo Pro, Zune HD, Thinkpad T61, Gigabyte M912M or a Hackintoshed Compaq Mini 704. He proudly groks the Geek community and considers himself a Neo Maxi Zune Dweebie (thanks Will Wheaton!).





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  • @Zealot:

    Apparently of the 4.9 million Eees shipped, only 4.5 million were actually sold in 2008. That leaves 400,000 Eees sitting in retailers warehouses clogging up the supply chain and cutting into new shipments and sales in 2009. Acer is even worst shape, with only 4 million sold out of 4.5-4.8 million shipped. One fifth of last years shipments still sitting gathering dust in January does not bode well for first quarter sales.

    I've got to take issue with two things.

    First, 8.5 million/9.7 million (worst case) is over 87% of shipped units sold (8.5/9.4 best case is over 90%). So I wouldn't say 1/5 of last year's shipments are sitting around; it's closer to 1/10.

    Even considering Acer alone, 4/4.8 (worst case) is 83.3% (best case is 4/4.5 or almost 89%).

    Second, did you take into account that some of those shipments may have been at the very end of 2008 to meet first quarter demand in 2009? Selling every unit you shipped in 2008 would leave a gap in sales in early 2009.

    Assuming a uniform distribution in sales (which isn't accurate due to the holidays, but it's simpler), if you ship once a month, you'd want to ship 1/12 (or 8.33%) of your 2008 units for sale in 2009.

    So maybe it's not quite so bad for netbook OEMs.

    Steve
  • I definetly agree netbooks are here to stay, but the industry tends to look to certain products as saviors that can do no wrong. People think of the iPhone like that, and some now view Netbooks the same way (not Intel however).

    I just think it is important not to push expectations too high. That is what has messed up Asus in Q4 this year.

    Darren, I will be getting an Aspire One next month just for Windows 7. Any chance of you posting how you went about the install and how it handles the beta?

    Z
  • siemens
    Netbooks didnt take off untill last year. 5-10 percent of last years sales is only 1 month sales this year, maybe much less when taking into account the growth factor.

    Netbooks are here to stay, and they are much more successful than any smartphone could hope for. That is what this is showing.
  • Ya, its not such a good idea to bloat the channel, that is for sure. Of course, these sales numbers are still quite healthy and probably would be even more impressive when compared to the rest of the industry.

    Hey, I did my part in those sales numbers. I just got myself an Acer Aspire One and am running Windows 7 on it. :) Luvin it!
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