Apparently of the 4.9 million Eees shipped, only 4.5 million were actually sold in 2008. That leaves 400,000 Eees sitting in retailers warehouses clogging up the supply chain and cutting into new shipments and sales in 2009. Acer is even worst shape, with only 4 million sold out of 4.5-4.8 million shipped. One fifth of last years shipments still sitting gathering dust in January does not bode well for first quarter sales.

I’ve got to take issue with two things.

First, 8.5 million/9.7 million (worst case) is over 87% of shipped units sold (8.5/9.4 best case is over 90%). So I wouldn’t say 1/5 of last year’s shipments are sitting around; it’s closer to 1/10.

Even considering Acer alone, 4/4.8 (worst case) is 83.3% (best case is 4/4.5 or almost 89%).

Second, did you take into account that some of those shipments may have been at the very end of 2008 to meet first quarter demand in 2009? Selling every unit you shipped in 2008 would leave a gap in sales in early 2009.

Assuming a uniform distribution in sales (which isn’t accurate due to the holidays, but it’s simpler), if you ship once a month, you’d want to ship 1/12 (or 8.33%) of your 2008 units for sale in 2009.

So maybe it’s not quite so bad for netbook OEMs.

Steve

I just think it is important not to push expectations too high. That is what has messed up Asus in Q4 this year.

Darren, I will be getting an Aspire One next month just for Windows 7. Any chance of you posting how you went about the install and how it handles the beta?

Z

Netbooks are here to stay, and they are much more successful than any smartphone could hope for. That is what this is showing.

Hey, I did my part in those sales numbers. I just got myself an Acer Aspire One and am running Windows 7 on it. :) Luvin it!