What I Learned Watching CES 2009

Posted by Zealot on Jan 11, 2009

closeThis post was published 11 months 8 days ago. This info might have changed or might have become outdated.

ces Like most of you, I had to observe the excitement of CES as I do such exciting events as the NBA Finals(2010 will be Rip City, Man!) and US Presidential Elections…via the internet. Thankfully excellent coverage could be found here at MobilitySite (Thanks Chris and Jack!) and numerous other tech blogs and websites so I was able to feel right in the thick of the action. In fact, the clarity of distance and the sheer breadth and variety of views and opinions available on the web makes it easier I imagine to note trends and general truths at CES about mobile technology. One can see the forest for the trees, so to speak…or the network for the mobile devices.

So what did I learn about what to expect in 2009 from CES?

PLENTY!

After the jump, check out the three main stories I noted in CES coverage and see if you agree with my predictions for the year to come.

It’s A Netbook WORLD!: It was almost frightening just how many companies debuted first or second generations at CES this year. Not only did former holdout Sony become the last of the bigs save one (Yes Apple, I am looking at YOU) to bring out a Netbook, but such unlikely vendors as Coby and Viewsonic trotted out their mighty mites as well. The newest crop of these now almost ubiquitous devices include such hoped for innovations as 3G, multitouch, full sized keyboards and 10-11 inch screens. Add to these entries hundreds of Asian vendors flogging Netbooks looking for a distribution deal in the West, and you couldn’t throw a press conference at CES without hitting a Netbook. More and more it is clear that during 2009 the line between Netbooks and ultra portable Notebooks will continue to blur, especially if advances by nVidia and VIA are allowed to improve the graphics power of Netbooks. Soon, despite Intel’s best efforts to drive back the cannibals, Netbooks may well be the entry level and light duty PC of choice for most consumers, with a Netbook model available for every need and budget.

Palm is BACK!: I personally am thrilled to see all the positive buzz the new Palm Pre is getting, even though we are still half a year away from the phone’s actual release. Even sites that are normally iPhone havens such as Gizmodo are saying that a product has finally emerged to give Apple’s little dividend-booster a run for it’s money. Combining a killer OS with great hardware, just like the iPhone did, but adding business friendly features such as a QWERTY keyboard and lots of third-party applications right out of the box may bring Palm back to the forefront fast. The Pre looks like it could do for Palm what a little gadget called the iPod did for Apple. Of course, we still need to see if Palm is able to execute to get the smartphones out to users in a timely, bugfree fashion, if Sprint is able to give it proper network support, and what the actual price of the device will be. Palm is not out of the woods yet, but Pre is definitely a long step in the right direction and looks likely to shoulder the G1 out of the way as the top alternative to the iPhone. I love my Moto Q, but when my contract comes up next January I dearly hope that the Pre is available where I live (as I need a CDMA phone, Sprint’s sponsership is great for me). If it is, I am saying right now, I am switching back to Palm…and I don’t think I will be alone.

Windows Mobile is Marking Time: Not much was happening on the WinMo front at CES 2009. No jawdropping new devices, no innovative developments…in fact, Microsoft had the gall to announce that there would actually be fewer devices released in 2009 running WinMo then in 2008. It almost feels like they are stalling, lowering expectations for the coming year. Of course, the reason for this may be that Microsoft has been a bit focused lately on Windows 7 just around the corner and there is still quite a while to go before Windows Mobile 7 is due for release. Such neglect does not bode well for Windows Mobile, with iPhone riding high, more Android phones coming soon, Palm resurgent and RIM still controlling the enterprise. However, Windows 7 may yet prove to be WinMo’s saving grace. Thus far, the beta is being given high marks and seems to be considered better then XP (we won;t even talk about Vista). Windows Mobile could only benefit from being more tightly linked with Windows 7 then it was with XP or Vista and revamped to match it’s look and feel. If the desktop OS proves as popular as I think it will be, then the possibility of having a mobile version of it on your phone may strike a powerful convergence chord in the market. In fact, I would not be surprised if Windows Mobile 7 is ultimately spun by Windows into a companion to Windows 7. Having matching numbers is a marketing godsend (as I have mentioned before) and could finally put to an end to the versioning nightmares the mobile OS has been for vendors and consumers alike.

Looking at the movers and shakers at CES 2009 this will be the year the Netbook comes into it’s own and the Pre stakes it’s claim to serious marketshare…but I suspect we will need to reserve CES 2010 as the year Redmond strikes back.

Zealot (491 Posts) - Website | Twitter | Facebook


By day a department manager and writer for a major network device vendor...by night Zealot stalks the mean magnetic streets, striking fear into the hearts of bandwidth abusers and theme park mascots. Zealot has been involved with mobile devices for more than a decade now, starting off with dumb phones, moving to PDAs and then to smartphones, notebooks and netbooks with the odd PMP thrown in. Most of his mobile time currently is spent on a Treo Pro, Zune HD, Thinkpad T61, Gigabyte M912M or a Hackintoshed Compaq Mini 704. He proudly groks the Geek community and considers himself a Neo Maxi Zune Dweebie (thanks Will Wheaton!).

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  • Magda K
    Not only did former holdout Sony become the last of the bigs save one (Yes Apple, I am looking at YOU) to bring out a Netbook

    You and I may need assistive technology before Jobs comes around to embracing a Netbook. MacHeads have begged Apple for subnotebooks for years (I've abused my share of Apple campus reps) and while the MacBook Air is cute ... not quite what ... well, I had in mind.
  • I think the big Windows Mobile announcement will be in February (at GSM World?). Microsoft probably didn't want to steal too much thunder from Windows 7.

    As for having fewer devices in 2009, I wouldn't read too much into that. The way it's being spun is that too many devices causes consumer confusion and allows too many lower-spec devices that end up causing problems.

    I don't know if I buy that, but I wouldn't take it as a bad sign yet. I even read one suggestion that Microsoft should take advantage of the soft economy, buy HTC and just produce their own phones (which would, of course, mean a lot fewer devices in 2009).

    Steve
  • Duwenbasden
    Palm can die in a fire for all I care.

    (I live in Canada)
  • Great Analysis Zealot. I will have my wrap up online in about 1 hour.
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