Obviously the growth rate will slow at some point. 50-66% growth isn't sustainable forever (eventually, you'll be limited by the Earth's population growth rate :D).

The more important question is what kind of market share will Android get -- and whose market share will be hurt. People talk about the iPhone and BlackBerry market share growth, but that seemed to affect Symbian the most (and maybe Windows Mobile a bit).

However, even market share can be misleading. Just because WinMo lost a little market share doesn't mean that the platform wasn't growing (because market share is a zero-sum game). Until everybody has a smart phone, all platforms can still grow even though some will lose market share.

Steve

Thanks for the clarification Kevin! But I still disagree. I do not think that we are going to see a slower grow rate. There are many companies that will jump in the next few months into the Android boat not counting Europe.

Oh no I didn't! :) I didn't say Android would experience a slowdown in sales. I said I expected the *growth rate* to slow, which is very different. Android use can continue to grow, but at a *slower* pace under my scenario. ;)

Just talked to an old friend of mine who jumped from a simple flip-phone to the T-Mobile G1 after I showed him some of my mobile phones. He's been mightily impressed by the unit and OS.