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Randall Boggs: Shh. Shh. Shh. Shh. Do you hear that? [pause] It’s the winds…of change.

It seems that there has been a bellweather change in the days since the burst of enthusiasm right before the release of Windows Mobile 6.5. Even though a number of cool new phones were released or are on the way utilizing the newest version of WinMo (yes HTC Leo, I see you there in the back), a wave of disappointment and hopelessness has plagued the faithful.

Even though we were warned that 6.5 was a maintenance release pending the changes in Windows Mobile 7, we still expected more from it and WinMo 7 seems so far away. We had all though it would be here long ago. I remember posting a year ago that Microsoft could make some marketing hay out of releasing Windows Mobile 7 alongside Windows 7 as a commenter scoffed that MS couldn’t afford to wait until Q3/09 to release Windows Mobile 7.

Well, now the best we can hope for with WinMo 7 is sometime in 2010. How bad has it gotten? Steve Ballmer is publicly admitting error regarding Windows Mobile and MobilitySite’s Managing Editor Chris Leckness is utterly besotted with his new iPhone. THAT BAD. Even worse…vendors continue to defect from Windows Mobile and Android is gaining yet more momentum…

Android was tabbed months ago along with Palm to be the dark horses in the Smartphone race. While Palm’s WebOS has dazzled, the Pre and Pixi hardware has not impressed in the way Apple’s iPhone did, and therein lies the danger of a company producing both software and hardware. The WebOS phones are coming too slow for Palm and WebOS to make much of a difference in the race this year if ever. Android, on the other hand, is now being produced by just about everybody. I keep expecting to find out Fisher Price is prepping “My First Android Phone” for a holiday release.

For example, Sony Ericsson is poised to drop either Windows Mobile or Symbian as an operating system for the coming year in hopes of eventually pulling a Motorola and focusing all their efforts on Android development. In a recent conference call the new Sony Ericsson CEO, Bert Nordberg, has said the company will be announcing a new strategy soon.

The company is currently shipping smartphones based on both Windows Mobile and Symbian but has already said they intend to add Android to the mix. However, it appears the company is unsure if it can support all three platforms in the future (few vendors support more then two phone OS). The company will announce a new strategy in the next two quarters, according to Nordberg.

Most analysts are viewing this as a warning that the company will be dropping for one of the incumbent smartphone Operating Systems, if not both. If one has to go, analysts are splitting down the middle as to it being WinMo or Symbian, but all agree it is just a matter of time and momentum before they become an Android-only shop. As one analyst pointed out, Windows Mobile is the last of the smartphone operating system options to charge a licensing fee.

Sony Ericsson is joining HTC, Samsung, Motorola, LG, and Acer in developing Android phones. Of those, most are still releasing Windows Mobile phones as well (save for Moto) but HTC has already stated they will be focusing most of their efforts on Android. It is not hard to see others doing the same if Windows Mobile 7 slips much further or disappoints.

You can also add one more vendor to that Android list…Asus has stated that their Android based smartphone that was due out next year is being pushed forward into Q4/09, obviously to catch the Android momentum everyone can feel building.

Clearly the last quarter of this year is building up to a coming out party for Android, and if things get much more dire for Windows Mobile I just might be in there throwing confetti with the rest of them. That Moto Droid is looking truly stunning…maybe THAT will be my iPhone, Chris.