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Half a year ago I went out on a limb here and predicted that 2010 would be The Year of the Ebook, with ebook readership and ebook reader purchases finally breaking out during 2010. When I wrote that, the Nook was soon to arrive, along with other heavily hyped devices like the Sony Reader Daily and some kind of tablet/reader from Apple. Also, every major tech vendor was saying they had an ebook reader in the works, each more grandiose than the last. A time of great home and anticipation for ebook fans, surely.

So as the first half of 2010 winds down, how does the story stand? Were those hopes realized? Did I make a fool of myself with my prediction? Well, things haven’t gone quite the way I expected back in November. Lets take a look at the big ebook stories and the new reader devices so far this year and see if we have made progress or lost our place in the ebook story.

The major stories in the ebook world during the first half of the year have been the ongoing price wars between Amazon and the publishers, with Apple egging on the pricing rebels to try and replicate their iTunes success with ebooks. It seems like every week or so there was a new dustup between Amazon and Macmillian, or another publisher looking to change the bargain basement pricing rules as Amazon dictated them. The publishers feel that ebooks should cost more, and Apple agrees. What’s more, Apple is demanding that any publisher selling through their iBookstore not sell their books for less elsewhere…meaning it boils down to Amazon vs. Apple as Amazon tries to stick with their $9.99 pricing structure. Whether or not any of these players benefited from the turmoil, it mainly served to confuse consumers and brought home the reality that thus far, Amazon is correct and the mainstream clearly feels that an ebook should be substantially cheaper than it’s printed cousins. After all, they don’t have to pay to print it. Of course, publishers will tell us that the price of the paper and binding is negligible compared with licensing and royalty fees and marketing expenses all of which are still relevant to ebooks, but that really doesn’t matter. The public perception is that ebooks are over priced, and that concept is hindering the growth of the format.  Price wars do nothing but reinforce that idea. Of course, what Apple is trying to find out is what the market will bear. Hardcover prices, no, but will people pay more than $9.99, especially if Apple is involved? I have a feeling the answer to that question will be the next big ebook story.

Ereader software continues to standardize, with the EPUB format being a runaway success, further weakening Amazon in their arguments with the publishers and Apple (who support EPUB despite the lingering scent of Google on the format). In addition, the Kindle software client and ebook store continue to dominate across platforms. The price war has weakened the hold that Amazon had last year, but they are still the major player in selling online books..and that requires their software.

So lets look at the software and hardware releases (and non-releases) that have affected the ebook market thus far this year.

• Kindle for PC and Android and iPad

Kindle software continues to be the gold standard of ebook reading, backed by Amazon’s marketing muscle and vast library of titles. As the software spreads for free to every possible platform (if it has a screen, I expect you will soon be able to install a Kindle app on it) it is becoming clear that this is a classic razor/razor blades situation. The actual ebook hardware doesn’t much matter, what matters is who sells you the books. Apple and Google and the publishers have all taken runs at Amazon’s dominance in ebook sales, and they have certainly cut into Amazon’s bottom line, but in the end nothing compares to the ability to read a few pages of your current vampire/demon/angel ménage a trois romance novel at your PC in the morning, a few more on your Kindle at lunch then the rest of the chapter on your iPhone during the bus ride home…with the book syncing your place each time, across platforms. That has got to be the biggest killer app in books since Gutenberg worked out that whole movable type thing.

• Barnes and Noble Nook

The Nook arrived a day late, after the Christmas rush, and a dollar short facing luke warm reviews. Selling for $259 at B&N bookshops and online, it has certainly been a hit for the bookstore giants but major technical issues such as slow page turns and performance issues have made it something less then a Kindle Killer…but the Kindle has proven to be a bit unkillable, spreading it’s software out to other devices like Voldemort making Horcruxes. Despite not being what it was hyped to be, the Nook was a moderate success and continues to improve with software updates. It is still the closest competitor to the Kindle and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. If the recent addition of a browser to the device indicates that B&N will be doing more with it’s Android capabilities in the future, then it should continue to grow more popular despite early missteps.

• Kindle 3

I was sure we would see a hardware upgrade for the Kindle by now, but the belly flop by the Nook and the continued growth of Kindle software adoption by other devices, coupled with continuing strong sales of the Kindle 2, likely convinced Amazon there is no need yet for a new Kindle, and who can blame them? They are likely right. A new Kindle would just confuse an already jumbled marketplace at this point. The Kindle is one of the only ebook readers with name recognition, so why risk spoiling that. As for the software…see above.

• The iPad

Will the iPad totally revolutionize ebooks and digital media and become the dominant reader on the market? Sorry Steve, but I doubt it. The price tag is a problem, no matter what the fanboys and early adoption numbers say. The iPad also has not lit ebook and new media reading on fire the was Steve expects it to. However, these are early days yet with iPads still in short supply, even at Apple stores. It is possible that the iPad could reach critical mass of readers to push ebooks over the top. Even if it doesn’t have that major an effect it will still go a long way to mainstreaming ebooks as more and more people pick up the giant iPad Thingie. I am not convinced yet I will use it for reading more than I do my iPod Touch, but I should have an iPad in hand next week and will see how it goes. Either way, the iPad as been the major tech event of the year so far, and it has definitely had an effect on ebooks, if for no other reason then to get people talking about them again. IN addition it seems to be having the same effect on upcoming ebook readers as it has been having on tablets…it may be scaring competitors away. These days, if Apple has staked out a product category as it’s own as it did MP3 players, to a lessor degree mobile phones, and now table computers, no one wants to be the next Zune.

• Sony Reader Daily Edition

This large form touch screen reader joined the rest of the Sony Reader line a bit after Christmas to unimpressed reviews and mediocre sales. It fills in a gap in the line, allowing newspapers and magazines to be read, but beyond that the high price ($399) puts it out of the reach of their target market, being students and such. Available in major chain stores, and from Sony.

• Spring Design Alex eReader

Yet another device which kept announcing release dates and watched them go sailing past, the Alex finally started shipping in mid April. The reviews have been generally positive for the dual screen Android driven ereader, but the lack of 3G and the $399 price tag is a major problem for the device. Add to that the hurdle that it is only available from Spring’s website, the Alex will likely be a footnote by the end of the year.

• Plastic Logic Que eReader

The Que COULD have been a game-changer. It looked to be a big, stylish, Office doc capable ereader that had a lot to say for it and was going to be sold at Barnes and Noble shops. However an April release date became sometime in the summer, maybe August, and preorders have been shut down. Plastic Logic says that is due to too much demand, which I find very very hard to believe at the insane price of $799 for the 3G model. Sounds more like they don;t want to have to refund too many credit card payments down the line. I have to say that unless I see evidence to the contrary, don’t think the Que will ever see the light of day.

• Entourage Edge eReader

The Edge is available at long last from the Entourage website but the book style dual screen device (one screen digital ink, the over LED Touchscreen) doesn’t come cheap at $500 dollars minimum. It also tends to be a good deal bulkier then most other ebook readers which is a serious problem. However, the Edge does have the advantage of being one of the only ebook readers that is distinctive and shows some innovation. Whether you consider that innovation to be a brilliant idea or a design flaw is very much a matter of personal preference. Either way, I don’t see the Edge making much of a difference in the marketplace unless it gets more marketing or shelf space at a major chain.

• iRex DR800 eReader

This one actually made it to Best Buy on schedule around the end of last year but sells for the premium price of $499. The reviews are good but with no marketing to speak of, it is there for aficionados and shoppers who look at Best Buy with no set plan in advance as to which eReader they want and plenty of money to burn, but they just want an ebook reader. That being said, the device looks very nice with a solid if unremarkable feature set, a large touch screen, annotations and the ability to read PDFs and ePUB formats. It is also available from the iRex website. This one SHOULD succeed, but that price will get in its way.

• Txtr eReader

Not a bad looking device…but still only available for preorder, and only in Germany. Add in the high price of 299 Euros and you get…well…yeah, an overpriced device that isn’t available yet, and may never reach the US anyway. Can you say doorstop?

• Toshiba’s 7″ JournE touch

An early tablet that had some hope of being an eReader but made nary a ripple in the market. There was some talk of Toshiba using the same form for a dedicated eReader but I would be very surprised if they go through with that plan in a post iPad world. Consider this one dead on arrival.

• Samsung SNE-50K eReader

Samsung’s entry into the market is very similar to the smaller Sony readers, and thus far has only been released in Korea. I don’t expect it to appear elsewhere.

• Asus eReader

Lots and lots of rumors and sideways comments from Taiwanese execs about this device have flown over the last 6 months, dutifully reported as facts by Digitimes. As could have been expected, the dual screen color wonder-reader that Asus promised us last year has been forgotten, and the DR-900 device they debuted a few weeks ago looks very much like…most other ebook readers. A large touch screen, a plethora of ebook formats and WiFi and 3G connectivity. It should appear by Christmas, maybe…but at this point nothing we haven’t seen before. No price mentioned as of yet, but if it isn’t quite low Asus shouldn’t bother.

• Creative MediaBook

This tablet/ebook reader/smartbook mashup was announced last November. Since then, no one has breathed a single word about it. For now, consider it another casualty of the iPad unless we see differently.

• iRiver Story

A really lovely device that sadly follows the normal route of iRiver devices these days…nothing innovative and only available in Korea. Sigh…when it was announced, I really wanted one of these. iRiver always breaks my heart.

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Other devices that had ebook potential, such as the HP Slate and the Microsoft Courier, have already been cancelled in fear of that sucking noise coming from Cupertino..who knows how many others will follow?

So has 2010 been the Year of the Ebook? Not so far, thanks to some serious hardware collapses and a messy price war between Apple, Kindle and just about everybody else.…however we have a few months until Christmas yet so anything can happen. There has been progress in ebook acceptance, but the hunt for an inexpensive, widely available ebook reader continues. On top of that, we have yet to see the full potential of the iPad effect, which could still change everything regarding ebooks, how we buy them and how we read them.

It should be an exciting summer…after all, truth is often stranger than fiction.