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You can really adjust the movie size according to what you need. Programs like Pocket DivX Encoder, FairUse, AutoGK, and others usually allow you to choose file size directly (with exception of Virtual Dub) so you can fit a 2 hour movie on a 256 or 512.
HOWEVER, always remember that the bigger the file, the better the quality. I prefer 500MB-750MB per movie, and to me, the quality is excellent. Also, if you have an Axim x50 or x50v, depdending on the 320x240 or 640x480 resolution you can get away with certain stuff. If you have an Axim x50, x30, or x5, usually just a 300MB-400MB file will do. If you have an x50v, you'd probably want to double that size to get the same quality. Plus, that's not including programs, games, ebooks, audio files and all that other good stuff.
What it boils down to: Go for the 2GB card, they are pretty cheap (especially CF cards, I got a 1GB for $50, now they are like $41.) You won't regret it, and it will leave room for expansion, that is most important for PC's and PPC's.
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